Commentary by the Center for Analysis of Economic Reforms and Communication (CAERC)

Armenia’s aging Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) continues to pose a threat to regional environmental security. Antonia Wenisch from the Austrian Institute of Applied Ecology in Vienna, in her article published in National Geographic, described Metsamor as “one of the most dangerous nuclear plants still in operation.” In short, Metsamor is a ticking time bomb.

The plant was built in 1980, only 10 miles (16 kilometers) from the Turkish border, in a highly seismic zone of Armenia, and currently fails to meet any modern safety standards. Natural disasters such as earthquakes could cause severe damage to the NPP, potentially resulting in high levels of radioactivity across the South Caucasus and neighboring countries. The devastating 6.8-magnitude earthquake on 7 December 1988, which caused approximately 25,000 deaths, remains a stark reminder of the region’s seismic risks.

On the other hand, there is insufficient official information regarding the plant’s management and waste handling practices, which raises concerns about possible regional environmental disasters. According to some reports, Armenia disposes of radioactive waste in the occupied Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan (internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, though currently under Armenian control). There are also credible claims that radioactive waste is transported via underground pipelines from the NPP to Nagorno-Karabakh.

Such developments also pose an environmental threat to Türkiye. Recent analyses by Turkish experts indicate that radiation-contaminated water from the plant continues to mix with groundwater resources, posing serious health risks to the population of Iğdır province. An increase in cases of childhood disabilities and cancer has been observed in the region.

The World Nuclear Industry Status Report (2020) states that the plant’s single active reactor currently generates 27.8% of the country’s total electricity production. The remainder of Armenia’s electricity is produced from hydropower, solar and wind energy, as well as imported natural gas.

In March 2020, the European Commission’s document “Eastern Partnership Policy beyond 2020” included recommendations on energy policy and nuclear energy, emphasizing the need to diversify energy supply, particularly through renewable energy sources. Considering Armenia’s substantial water resources (with Lake Sevan covering approximately 80% of total consumption needs), nuclear energy could be readily replaced by hydropower. Another alternative could be increasing the share of imported gas from Russia and Iran.

The European Commission, Türkiye, and environmental organizations specializing in nuclear safety have been exerting strong pressure on Armenia to shut down the plant, citing its potential risks and negative impact on the entire region. The core principles of the Paris Agreement and other environmental frameworks emphasize the wider adoption of green technologies as a means of combating climate change.

Despite global warnings and the requirements of confirmed international agreements, Armenia continues to demonstrate an unconstructive approach to its obligations, remaining a threat to both humanity and nature. Armenian media reported that in early June 2019 the plant was shut down for 110 days due to repair and modernization works, and again from 1 July 2020 to 3 September 2020 for another 65 days for preventive maintenance. Such so-called maintenance activities are seen as attempts to obscure the potential severity of a possible disaster that the plant may cause.