In Azerbaijan, a special quarantine regime was declared from 00:00 on March 24, 2020, until 00:00 on April 20, 2020.

Vusal Gasimli, Executive Director of the Center for Analysis of Economic Reforms and Communication (CAERC), emphasized the critical importance of the special quarantine:

“Mathematical models worldwide show that if strict isolation and hygiene measures are not implemented, an infected person typically transmits the coronavirus to 2–3 other people. In some countries, the rapid spread of coronavirus is linked to this factor. In China, for instance, the epidemic initially doubled its reach every 6.4 days. However, mathematical modeling indicates that reducing the infection rate by 25–50% can significantly slow the spread of the disease. A reduction of more than 63% could lead to the pandemic subsiding. Social isolation is the key requirement to reduce transmission, and strict compliance with special quarantine rules in Azerbaijan is a matter of social responsibility for everyone. Only social isolation can prevent infections and allow us to keep the situation under control.”

Gasimli also noted that the basic reproduction number—the number of people an infected person transmits the virus to—is being closely monitored worldwide. Like other countries, Azerbaijan’s healthcare system has a certain “critical capacity.” Currently, the country has 33 doctors, 54 paramedical staff, and 45 hospital beds per 10,000 people. By implementing a special quarantine, the Azerbaijani government aims to lower the basic reproduction number and achieve full control over the situation—and it has been successful.

The special quarantine allows the “coronavirus curve” to be “flattened” and the situation to be controlled. While economic losses are inevitable under social isolation, global shocks, and low oil prices, the losses from social isolation are far smaller than the potential consequences if the healthcare system loses control of the pandemic. Therefore, the requirements of the special quarantine should be understood and strictly followed. The earlier the quarantine is implemented, the more effective it is, reducing the number of infections in the following days. Economic losses can be recovered over time, so the priority must be protecting the people of Azerbaijan.