The January edition of the World Bank report Global Economic Prospects (January 2026) has been published. Commenting on the report, Rashad Najafli, Deputy Head of the Economic Analysis Department at the Center for Analysis of Economic Reforms and Communication, stated that although the global economy is demonstrating greater resilience than expected amid rising trade restrictions and tariffs, the current pace of growth remains insufficient to ensure long-term and inclusive development.

According to the report, global GDP growth is projected to decline from 2.7 percent in 2025 to 2.6 percent in 2026, before rising again to 2.7 percent in 2027. The 2026 forecast has been revised upward by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous June assessment, while the 2025 growth estimate exceeds earlier projections by 0.4 percentage points.

Based on the World Bank’s assessment, roughly two thirds of this positive revision is attributable to stronger than expected economic performance in the United States. US GDP growth is projected at 2.1 percent in 2025 and 2.2 percent in 2026, which is respectively 0.5 and 0.2 percentage points higher than previous estimates.

While the acceleration of imports at the beginning of 2025, aimed at avoiding tariffs, had a certain negative impact on US economic growth, the expansion of tax incentives in 2026 is expected to support economic activity. At the same time, the negative effects of tariffs on investment and consumption are expected to persist.

The report notes that growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to slow from 4.2 percent in 2025 to 4.0 percent in 2026. Excluding China, growth in this group of countries is projected to remain at 3.7 percent in both 2025 and 2026. In China, economic growth is expected to decline from 4.9 percent in 2025 to 4.4 percent in 2026. Nevertheless, due to expanded fiscal stimulus and increased exports to markets outside the United States, China’s forecast has been revised upward by 0.4 percentage points compared to previous assessments.

In the euro area, economic growth is projected to slow from 1.4 percent in 2025 to 0.9 percent in 2026, before recovering to 1.2 percent in 2027 against the backdrop of rising defense expenditures in Europe. In Japan, economic growth is expected to reach 0.8 percent in 2026, down from 1.3 percent in 2025, and to remain at 0.8 percent in 2027, reflecting weakening consumption and investment.

Rashad Najafli emphasized that the current global economic environment makes the acceleration of structural reforms, improvement of the investment climate, and enhancement of productivity key priorities, particularly for developing economies. Only under these conditions will it be possible to achieve sustainable and inclusive economic growth in the medium and long term. All the forecast indicators cited are based on the statistical annex of the World Bank’s official report Global Economic Prospects, January 2026.

Source: Mənbə: https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects