President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev chaired a video conference on the results of 2020. “In 2020, the economy of Azerbaijan demonstrated “antifragility” as said by a famous scientist Nassim Taleb, responded to all calls showing an adequate reaction to shocks, and strengthened the immunity”, said Head of the Center for Analysis of Economic Reforms and Communication, Doctor of Economics Vusal Gasimli. He also noted, “According to the results of the Gallup International latest surveys, Azerbaijan is among top three countries in the Economic Optimism Index. The victory of our Army under the leadership of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief has increased self-confidence and trust, which will contribute to our economic development.”

V.Gasimli stated that in 2020, against the background of the economic downturn, the quality of growth has increased in some areas. “While the economic downturn was more than 4 percent, the non oil and gas industry, due to application of modern technology, increased by more than 11 percent, making the share of this sector in the economy 16 percent higher. Industrialization leads to the creation of more chain values and increases the competitiveness and Economic Complexity Index calculated by Harvard University. Significant increase in the production of chemical, pharmaceutical, metallurgical, electronic, optical, rubber, and plastic products within the processing industry is important in terms of import substitution, export orientation, and integration into value chains. It is forecasted that the commissioning of TAP against the background of declining oil production will increase gas production in Azerbaijan and support economic growth.

The growth in the agrarian sphere has been reached mainly in an intensive way rather than extensive. Cotton, tobacco, vegetables, sugar beet, and grain production has increased. In 2020, such innovative spheres as information and communication services managed to maintain a small growth rate. This year, it will be possible to restore tourism, transport, logistics, construction, catering, and trade, which suffered a deep decline due to the pandemic in 2020, through the state support, entrepreneurial initiatives, investment attraction, access to new markets, and the introduction of new business models.”

V.Gasimli noted that in 2020, along with the qualitative change in economic growth, steps have been taken to increase the efficiency of public administration and structural reforms. As he said, “The most important measures taken in 2020 were related to the deepening of the political dialogue, personnel reform, combating corruption, the formation of a new parliament, improvement of the work of the Cabinet of Ministers, and new economic policy framework – establishment of the Economic Council and the Coordination Headquarters to address issues in liberated territories, improvement of managing water resources, initiation of the State Investment Holding and Yashat Foundation, efficiency in public administration, organization of the state control, and observance of executive discipline.

The establishment of the State Investment Holding and Yashat Foundation, as well as the work done in the field of efficiency in public administration, organization of the state control, and observance of executive discipline were of great significance. In the world, the competition is seen among the best management systems. From this point, public administration reforms serve the general economic efficiency.

In 2020, under the leadership of President Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan was successful in managing several crises simultaneously. In order to prevent the aggravation of economic downturn and social welfare decline in 2020, Azerbaijan relied only on its resources, maintained the stability of manat, kept inflation low, prevented the increase in the public debt, and a sharp decline in strategic foreign exchange reserves, and maintained its current account balance despite low oil prices. The negative trends in the financial and banking sector observed in the first half of 2020 changed for the better in the second half of the year, and the crisis did not “leap over” into this sector. Financial provision of 2.3 billion manats in the state budget through the application of fiscal space and the provision of targeted liquidity support by the Central Bank has contributed to the fight against the pandemic as a whole. Revolutionary social reforms that had been implemented in 2019 formed a financial burden of 3 billion manats in 2020 along with an anti-pandemic budget of around 3.5 billion manats. Thus, the less damage the economy suffers, the more opportunities it has for quick recovery.   

V.Gasimli told that the involvement of Karabakh in the turnover of Azerbaijan’s economy with its forests, water, land, and intangible resources and minerals, as well as the expansion of the regional transport and communication capabilities following the new reality has  a great growth potential. “New reality established by victorious Supreme Commander-in-Chief and our army strengthens confidence that the country’s economy will double in the next 10 years. Particularly, such spheres as green energy, mining, metallurgy, processing industry, agriculture, and tourism will be developed in Karabakh through both public and private local and foreign investments. As one of the top-0 reformist countries in the World Bank’s Doing Business report, through systematic and sustainable reforms Azerbaijan.