The Turkic World Research Center, operating under the Center for Analysis of Economic Reforms and Communication, in cooperation with the Organization of Turkic States presents the latest release of the Turkic Economic Outlook for the 3rd quarter of 2024 in 8 languages.

This quarterly report offers a comprehensive analysis of the economic performance of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) members, including Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and observer members of Hungary, Turkmenistan, and Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Drawing on proprietary data and recent developments, insights are provided on key economic indicators, assess the collective economic impact of OTS members on the global stage.

Aggregate Economic Indicators

The combined GDP of OTS members for the first three quarters of 2024 is approximately $1.456 trillion, representing about 2.7% of the projected global GDP of $54 trillion for the same period. The member states achieved an average GDP growth rate of 4.5%, surpassing the global average of 3.0%.

The global trade volume for the first nine months of 2024 is estimated to be approximately $24.75 trillion, considering that the total trade volume for the entire year is projected to reach $33 trillion. Consequently, the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) members' trade turnover of $868 billion (excluding Turkmenistan and TRNC) during this period represents about 3.37% of the global trade volume. Turkmenistan's trade turnover with key partners like Russia, China, and Uzbekistan remains substantial, with trade with Uzbekistan alone reaching $867.8 million in the same period.  

Azerbaijan achieved a GDP growth of 4.7%, with significant contributions from the industrial sector, which grew by 1.3%. The country maintained a positive trade balance of $4.89 billion, indicating strong export performance. Notably, Azerbaijan has been investing in its energy sector, particularly in renewable energy projects, to diversify its economy and reduce dependence on oil exports.

Kazakhstan recorded a GDP growth of 4.1%, with the industrial sector expanding by 3.1% and agriculture by 10.8%. Despite a trade surplus of $18.43 billion, there was a slight decline in export growth by 4.8%. Kazakhstan continues to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) in sectors such as mining, oil and gas, and infrastructure development, enhancing its position as a regional economic hub.

Kyrgyzstan experienced robust GDP growth of 8.4%, driven by significant increases in both industry (4.2%) and agriculture (6.7%). The country also saw a substantial rise in exports by 28.2%, though it maintained a trade deficit of $6.54 billion. Kyrgyzstan's growth is supported by investments in the mining sector and efforts to improve its business environment to attract more FDI.

Turkey’s GDP growth was 3.2% during January-September 2024 reaching 971 bln USD dollar. Economic growth is projected at 3.5% by the end of the year.. Turkey has been focusing on sectors such as automotive, textiles, and technology, aiming to boost exports and reduce the trade deficit.

Uzbekistan achieved a GDP growth of 6.6%, with industry and agriculture growing by 7% and 3.1%, respectively. The nation faced a trade deficit of $8.66 billion, despite an export growth of 11.5%. Uzbekistan is implementing economic reforms to attract FDI, particularly in the textile, automotive, and agricultural sectors, to enhance its export potential.

Hungary experienced a GDP contraction of 0.8%, with declines in both industry (-4.2%) and agriculture (-9.1%). The country maintained a trade surplus of $10.44 billion. Hungary continues to focus on sectors like automotive manufacturing and information technology to drive economic growth.

Turkmenistan reported a GDP growth of 6.3%, with the industrial sector growing by 3.6%. The country is investing heavily in its natural gas sector, aiming to increase exports to international markets. Turkmenistan's economy, heavily reliant on natural gas exports, has consistently demonstrated stable growth.

Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in the first half of 2024, experienced a GDP growth of 3.7%. Efforts are being made to develop the tourism and education sectors to boost economic performance. Trade remains a critical component of its economy, with imports exceeding $1.5 billion, primarily from Turkey.

Potential for Economic integration

Trade turnover among Turkic states is projected to surpass $45 billion in 2024, highlighting deepening economic ties and successful efforts to enhance intra-regional trade. The Turkic States Economic Forum 2024 in Baku and the 11th OTS Summit in Bishkek emphasized economic integration, sustainable development, and digital innovation, reinforcing the commitment to shared prosperity. Efforts to streamline customs, reduce trade barriers, and advance infrastructure projects, such as transport and energy networks, are boosting connectivity and cohesion. Proposals for joint financial institutions and regional investment agreements aim to stabilize and accelerate economic growth.

Despite a modest share of global GDP, OTS member states are experiencing growth rates that surpass the global average. By leveraging collective strengths, fostering innovation, and implementing cohesive policies, these nations are poised to enhance their economic influence and achieve long-term, sustainable prosperity.

In Azerbaijani: https://tinyurl.com/32v7c9z9
In English: https://tinyurl.com/mr47spsv
In Russian: https://tinyurl.com/bdex2bdu
In Turkish: https://tinyurl.com/hyxe96ed
In Hungarian: https://tinyurl.com/28tcvs34
In Uzbek: https://tinyurl.com/yj62cv9w
In Kazakh: https://tinyurl.com/53t2mkn8
In Kyrgyz: https://tinyurl.com/4v3r7jht