Comment by Head of Department of CAERC Ayaz Museyibov

It is known that during 1 month of the war, the Armenian economy suffered the damage amounted to at least 3.5 billion US dollars. In addition, taking into account the alternative costs and lost opportunities, this damage increases by several times. These numbers are high enough for a country with a gross domestic product (GDP) equal to 13.7 billion US dollars and official reserve assets of 2.6 billion US dollars. 

As one of the countries with the worst poverty rates (23.5 percent) in Asia, Armenia has no favorable opportunities to increase military spending. According to international organizations, Armenia, which has lost 2.3 percent of GDP in the fight against the pandemic, will face an even greater fiscal deficit in the coming years (the Asian Development Bank's forecast is 5.6 percent, the International Monetary Fund's forecast is 7.4 percent) and low incomes[1].  As it is seen, the economy, which saw a decline in budget revenues and the sharpest decline in economic activity since 2009 (a 13.7 percent decline), has not yet recovered from the fight against the COVID-19 crisis.

In addition, according to the minimum assessment scenarios, Armenia suffered losses of military equipment and ammunition worth at least 2.7 billion US dollars, and that is why the country was forced to increase its military spending by 82 million US dollars. Also, the steps taken by the Armenian diaspora through holding campaigns in various countries of the world to provide Armenia with financial support attracts attention. Thus, the All-Armenian Fund Hayastan raised over 150 million US dollars in donations through the implementation of campaigns in various countries[2]. However, it is clear that this donation is not enough to protect Armenia from the expected potential economic exhaustion and socio-psychological explosions.

Arms are smuggled to Armenia under the guise of "humanitarian aid".

Currently, a country that is trying to smuggle weapons to Armenia through contact with various criminal groups does not have great opportunities in this regard. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has already informed Armenia about the use of aircraft registered in this country for arms smuggling. In a number of cases, the transfer of weapons and military equipment to Armenia is carried out under the guise of "humanitarian aid".

This includes the transportation of anti-aircraft missile systems and other heavy equipment worth several million dollars. It is clear what kind of consequences this policy, currently being implemented through various criminal groups, will have for the future economic independence of Armenia. As it becomes clear from the data of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), due to such mutual agreements reached previously, the energy, critical infrastructure and other strategically important areas of Armenia are now completely dependent on third countries[3]. That is why the Armenian society and civil society institutions must oppose the provision of such military assistance through criminal gangs and let their country not lose the remaining small part of its independence.

The financial resources provided to Armenia serve to financing terrorism.

Borrowings provided to Armenia by international organizations as well as infrastructure investments are indirectly spent by the Armenian side to finance terrorism and occupation. Thus, in this regard, part of the funds recently attracted by Armenia from foreign organizations to finance infrastructure projects are afterwards spent on the development of transport corridors through dirty money laundering schemes. Those corridors are marked by international organizations as dangerous routes for drug smuggling and arms transportation. The international community already knows that the separatist regime in Nagorno-Karabakh has drug plantations and transport corridors for their transportation. As part of the anti-terrorist operations carried out by the Azerbaijani army, it was revealed that in the occupied territories, Armenian terrorist forces used drugs in large quantities and organized the supply. The accumulation in these territories of ASALA, PKK, recognized terrorist organizations in the United States and the European Union, was also associated with the organization of this traffic. The fact that money laundering and drug smuggling is carried out in Armenia as a state policy was reflected in a report prepared by the US State Department.

US Central Intelligence Agency special quote: Armenian terrorism

Consecutive terrorist attacks on Ganja - a city without any military targets, initiated by Armenia on October, reminded the world community of its terrorist nature. It is no coincidence that among the few European countries and the only one in the South Caucasus, the US Central Intelligence Agency has formed a special concept of terrorism (“Armenian terrorism”) with regard to Armenia. That is why it bears remembering that the funds raised through campaigns to support Armenia, organized by Armenian lobbyists in different countries of the world under the guise of "humanitarian aid", are wasted on the implementation of such criminal intentions. Armenia has been working for a long time to attract investments from various financial and investment structures. It is expected and hoped that after such obvious terrorist attacks, international investors will recognize that any investments aimed at financing Armenia, as well as debt funds provided to it, directly serve terrorism, and thus will suspend financing of this country.

[1] https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/635666/ado2020-update.pdf

[2]http://arka.am/en/news/society/donations_to_hayastan_all_armenian_fund_for_artsakh_exceeds_132_7_million/?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=a7640d2058909cff9eb21a3231636c47c9440e05-1603641617-0-ASDipQF4YP2xtB1mSjQq7bcoN2gZG13JwMq6cp4yVrsuNcWTq12Vyy9VfK2ojOkjTukw7YqHeWXKnTZWJ2bAr8-bHcy6s8D8cBDDdhBbXA9Kwj-p9pKQFporVTBewgc5ukXPh0ORt47kGQTxeTi9khRiWCU1A5Y3coUz6FMrMoGWc9JlEq--7qR9wQlnQ-OM4GXMWUQbCvi4bw897Nmpmt795b4ZeDXBNYfYreYuFO1v8zegOjbDitv0xUP02pgNC_mU1LJZQk2W00JdyhH9t0cw4Z7eEJXjrAnpfespcN_IV4a9eKHLG3_p6rAdA7iuDuVveSVM9quu0QFDeXc1lt6qwas4ZAApTYXv18WFxX9rmCOQ-ldwNYjFkKjs5G0AZuaTA83LGFdPicE-NiUUEta7V135vq8f1cZxOOiHCFWZf9CeT9I_qKIlRo6J1ZyUFGD3hoKLucYGWjJJEBlPB9s

https://armenpress.am/rus/news/1032828.html

[3] https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/am.html