A new development architecture for cooperation between the Balkans and the South Caucasus

A new development architecture for cooperation between the Balkans and the South Caucasus

The joint statements made to the press by the leaders of Azerbaijan and Serbia in Belgrade have once again demonstrated that the relations between the two countries are developing on the basis of a strategic partnership.

Commenting on the subject, Latif Zeynalli, Head of the State Programs Department at the Center for Analysis of Economic Reforms and Communication (CAERC), stated that the messages delivered by President Ilham Aliyev and President Aleksandar Vučić show that the Azerbaijan-Serbia partnership is moving beyond a classic bilateral relations model to become a platform for regional energy security, investment cooperation, and geoeconomic integration. Over the past five years, the foreign trade turnover between Azerbaijan and Serbia has increased 15 times, reaching 135 million USD by the end of 2025. This, along with the high level of established political trust, has created a solid institutional basis for deepening economic and technological cooperation. As a logical continuation of this dynamic development, imports from Serbia increased by 55% in 2025, while the volume of direct investments from Serbia into Azerbaijan's non-oil sector has reached approximately 10 million USD to date. Overall, discussions at the leadership level confirm that the parties are not merely satisfied with implementing existing projects but are also forming a joint roadmap that determines a long-term development trajectory. This approach strengthens the partnership as strategic capital.

The CAERC Department Head noted that one of the directions specifically emphasized in the leaders' statements is the energy sector. Agreements on natural gas exports, electricity production, and the creation of new generation capacities show that cooperation is moving past the resource supply stage and into the stage of joint production and infrastructure development. The expansion of Azerbaijan-Serbia energy cooperation is characterized by increasing energy exports, promoting clean electricity production, and raising generation capacities through renewable sources. The opening of a gas-fired power plant with a capacity of 500 megawatts by 2029 is a clear example of this. The planned construction of the gas power plant is strategically important not only for energy supply but also for technology transfer, industrial cooperation, and the deepening of investment flows. At the same time, increasing our export potential from the current 2 gigawatts by an additional 8 gigawatts of energy capacity by 2032, along with the development of transmission infrastructure, will further strengthen Azerbaijan's strategic position in the European energy market.

The opening of a direct flight between Belgrade and Baku via "Air Serbia" has the potential to create new growth points in the tourism, humanitarian, and service sectors, while expanding logistical connections. This process also accelerates socio-cultural convergence between the peoples by strengthening the "soft power" component of economic diplomacy.

Latif Zeynalli added that the current dynamics show that Azerbaijan-Serbia relations are transforming into a multi-dimensional and institutionally grounded strategic partnership architecture that transcends the classic diplomatic framework of cooperation between the Balkans and the South Caucasus. The synergy forming in the fields of energy, investment, industry, transport, and technology will further increase the regional influence of both parties in the coming years. In this regard, the Belgrade meeting can be evaluated as a political manifesto of a new cooperation philosophy taking shape for the coming decades.