Rashad Najafli, Deputy Head of the Economic Analysis Department at the Center for Analysis of Economic Reforms and Communication (CAERC), has commented on the "Global Foresight 2036" report presented by the Atlantic Council, a prestigious international think tank. He stated that this report is not merely a collection of probabilities regarding the future, but also carries a "diagnostic" character, indicating the current direction of global strategic thinking. According to him, the survey, conducted with the participation of 447 geostrategists and foresight experts from 72 countries, clearly reveals the accumulating risks and the shifting balance of power in the international system. The results show that 63% of respondents believe the world will be in a worse state by 2036, while only 37% believe in a more positive scenario.

Rashad Najafli noted that a key point in the report is the evident shift in the global balance of power. The report clearly demonstrates a weakening of trust in global governance institutions. 71% of respondents believe that the influence of the United Nations will decline. Similarly, 65% expect the World Trade Organization, 50% the World Bank, and 41% the International Monetary Fund to lose their former weight in the global system. These figures indicate that the effectiveness and legitimacy of multilateral institutions formed in the 20th century are increasingly being called into question. According to the expert, these indicators signify a transformation in the global system that is not only institutional but also value-based.

Technological transformation, particularly the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI), is presented as one of the primary drivers of global change. According to the expert, 58% of respondents predict that AI will reach or even surpass human-level intelligence by 2036, suggesting that technology will have a profound impact not only on economic systems but also on social and governance structures in the coming decade. While 56% of respondents believe AI will create a generally positive impact, 32% think it could lead to negative consequences. Notably, the share of those who see the potential negative impact of technology on the economy as a major risk has risen from 6% to 14%. This dynamics shows that despite continued technological optimism, the perception of risks is growing rapidly, and approaches to AI's effects are becoming increasingly realistic.

The report also indicates a shift in global priorities regarding climate change. According to Najafli, only 17% of respondents evaluate climate change as a primary global risk, a significant decrease compared to previous years when this figure was approximately 30%. However, while the nature of climate-related risks is changing, their scale is not diminishing. More than 80% of respondents expect global temperature increases to exceed critical thresholds, and 64% note that conflicts over water resources could occur in the next decade. These figures suggest that climate change will continue to play a decisive role in the global security agenda through its indirect rather than direct impacts.

Rashad Najafli concluded that the "Global Foresight 2036" report clearly shows that the world is not just changing, but is entering a new phase. The reshaping of the global balance of power, increasing security risks, the loss of influence of international institutions, and the rapid emergence of technology as a dominant force are already defining the contours of a new world order. In this reality, the greatest challenge is not merely to follow the changes but to anticipate them. For states and think tanks, the core issue is to correctly interpret the changing global environment, identify risks in a timely manner, and formulate more agile, intelligent, and data-driven policy approaches.

Source: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paper-series/global-foresight-2036/