The latest assessments by international rating agency Moody’s of the Azerbaijani economy indicate that the country has significant financial resilience to external economic and geopolitical shocks.

Latif Zeynalli, Head of the State Programs Division at the Center for Analysis of Economic Reforms and Communication (CAERC), stated that Azerbaijan’s strong net creditor position, low public debt, and significant fiscal reserves create an important financial buffer for the national economy amid global economic uncertainties. Azerbaijan’s long-term issuer rating of “Baa3” is also supported by the country’s financial resilience and capacity to withstand external shocks.

Latif Zeynalli noted that Moody’s forecasts Azerbaijan’s economy to grow by 1.5 percent in 2026, with annual economic growth expected to be around 2–2.5 percent over the medium term. In assessing this forecast, it is important to focus not only on the overall pace of economic growth but also on its structure. The impact of declining oil production on economic growth is being partially offset by expanding economic activity in non-oil sectors. In particular, developments in ICT, tourism, and manufacturing are significant in terms of the gradual diversification of the sources of economic growth.

The Head of the CAERC Division stated that another important factor supporting Azerbaijan’s financial resilience, according to Moody’s assessment, is the significant financial assets accumulated in the State Oil Fund. These reserves play an important role in mitigating the impact of external and fiscal shocks, maintaining the sustainability of public finances, and ensuring flexibility in economic policy. At the same time, reforms in public financial management, digital governance, banking regulation, and fiscal oversight contribute to strengthening institutional resilience.

Latif Zeynalli emphasized that one of the key challenges in the next stage is to transform existing financial resilience into structural economic resilience. In this regard, it is particularly important to channel the financial resources accumulated toward increasing productivity in the non-oil sector, expanding private investment, accelerating digital transformation, diversifying exports, and developing new sources of economic growth. Moody’s assessment of investments in digital infrastructure, regional connectivity, and measures aimed at diversifying the economy as factors supporting medium-term economic growth further reinforces this approach.

Latif Zeynalli added that the expansion of regional transport and trade connectivity is an important factor increasing Azerbaijan’s opportunities for economic diversification. Strengthening the country’s position along the East–West and other international transport routes may not only expand transit opportunities but also provide additional momentum to the non-oil economy through logistics, services, trade, and investment channels. Strengthening regional stability and expanding economic ties could further contribute to realizing this potential more fully. Moody’s assessment highlights the important role of Azerbaijan’s strong financial position in ensuring economic resilience, while also underscoring the importance of using the opportunities created by financial buffers efficiently to develop a more productive, competitive, and diversified model of economic growth over the long term.