The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts that Azerbaijan's real GDP will grow by 2.5 percent in 2027.
Commenting on the "Regional Economic Prospects" report published by the EBRD, Latif Zeynallı, Head of the State Programs Department at the Center for Analysis of Economic Reforms and Communication (CAERC), stated that the EBRD's forecast of 2.0 percent real GDP growth for 2026 and 2.5 percent for 2027 reflects positive expectations that the growth momentum in Azerbaijan's economy will continue in the period ahead. At the same time, the 2.2 percent growth in non-oil-and-gas GDP and the 10.7 percent increase in fixed capital investment during the first seven months of 2026 indicate the continuation of positive trends in the structure of economic activity. An assessment of the indicators presented in the report highlights two key points: the continued contribution of the non-oil-and-gas sector to economic growth and the maintenance of strong fiscal and external buffers.
The report also draws attention to new economic opportunities for Azerbaijan in the medium term. According to the EBRD's assessment, continued large-scale investment in renewable energy projects could support economic diversification and the emergence of new sources of growth. This direction is significant not only for transforming the structure of energy production but also for its broader economic impact. Renewable energy projects can foster the attraction of new investments, the adoption of modern technologies, the diversification of energy exports, and the development of related service sectors.
Latif Zeynallı emphasized that the EBRD report also offers a positive assessment of the indicators characterizing Azerbaijan's fiscal and external positions. In the first seven months of 2026, the state budget recorded a surplus amounting to 4.5 percent of GDP. Meanwhile, in the first quarter of 2026, the current account surplus—based on a four-quarter rolling average—stood at 5.3 percent of GDP. Strategic foreign currency reserves rose by 12.2 percent year-on-year by the beginning of August 2026, reaching 114 percent of the 2025 GDP. The maintenance of budget and current account surpluses, alongside the high level of strategic foreign currency reserves, not only supports the country's macroeconomic and financial stability but also serves as a crucial buffer against external economic risks.
Latif Zeynallı added that the EBRD’s September report highlights several positive aspects of the Azerbaijani economy, including continued growth in the non-oil and gas sector, increased investment activity, and the preservation of a strong fiscal and external position. Against this backdrop, expanding investments into renewable energy, transport and logistics, digitalization, industry, and other high-value-added sectors could create a favorable environment for implementing new projects and further diversifying sources of economic growth.