Against the backdrop of global economic volatilities and geopolitical risks, a sustainable and diversified development model has become a priority for countries. In these circumstances, maintaining macroeconomic stability, strengthening the non-oil sector, and improving the investment climate serve as key strategic directions. The growth dynamics and structural changes observed in Azerbaijan's economy in recent years demonstrate a transition to a more balanced and sustainable stage of development.

According to the "Global Economic Prospects 2026" report published by the World Bank in January, the global economy has demonstrated higher-than-expected resilience amid volatility. Over the past year, the accumulation of traded goods for precautionary purposes, a relatively high risk appetite among investors, and increasing investments in artificial intelligence have supported economic activity.

Latif Zeynalli, Head of the State Programs Division at the Center for Analysis of Economic Reforms and Communication (CAERC), stated that against the background of global processes, the growth rate in the South Caucasus region is projected to be at 3.3 percent in 2026. In this context, the average annual GDP growth in Azerbaijan during 2022–2025 was 2.9%, while the non-oil and gas sector grew by 5.6%, indicating that growth is primarily driven by domestic and non-oil sources.

The increase in the share of the non-oil and gas sector in GDP from 45.9 percent in 2022 to 71.5 percent in 2025 reflects the acceleration of economic diversification, the growing role of non-commodity sectors in creating value-added, and the formation of institutional foundations for a more balanced development model. Specifically, during 2022–2025, average annual growth was observed at 22.3% in tourist accommodation and public catering, 13.1% in information and communication, 9.1% in the construction sector, 8.5% in transport and warehousing, and 5.6% in the non-oil and gas industry. Furthermore, according to the 2025 report by "Growth Lab" (Harvard University's Center for International Development), Azerbaijan advanced 44 places over the last 5 years to rank 95th in the Economic Complexity Index, emerging among the leading countries in terms of growth rates.

Latif Zeynalli noted that investments directed toward fixed capital in Azerbaijan's economy during 2022–2025 increased by an annual average of 3.6%, totaling 21.2 billion AZN. Consequently, investments in the non-oil and gas sector rose by 7.1%, reaching 15.8 billion AZN. The real growth rate of investments in the state sector for 2022–2025 was 11.8%, while the growth rate for the non-state sector was 0.2%. These figures show continued investment activity, with capital outlays in the public sector demonstrating higher growth dynamics. Steps taken toward ensuring macroeconomic stability have been positively assessed internationally, significantly impacting sovereign credit ratings. One of the world's leading rating agencies, "Moody’s Ratings," upgraded the country's sovereign credit rating to "investment grade" (from Ba1 to Baa3) while maintaining a "positive" outlook.

The CAERC Division Head emphasized that, according to the report, the preliminary peace agreement reached between Armenia and Azerbaijan in August 2025 will contribute to strengthening stability and expanding cooperation opportunities in the region. Azerbaijan's activities as a guarantor of peace and security in the South Caucasus can create new opportunities for expanding transport, trade, and investment cooperation. In this regard, the reinforcement of regional stability plays a vital role in strengthening the structural foundations of economic development.

Latif Zeynalli added that overall, despite global economic volatilities, the Azerbaijani economy demonstrates sustainable growth and structural diversification. The development of the non-oil sector, preservation of investment activity, improvement of international rating indicators, and the formation of a climate of peace and cooperation in the region serve as the primary factors strengthening the country's sustainable development prospects.