07 July 2021, 16:44

The long-term decline in global consumption has had a negative impact on the trade relations of world countries. In addition, non-tariff regulations in countries with large consumption and purchasing power due to the pandemic, especially the increase in sanitary and phytosanitary inspections, technical barriers, security for agricultural products, have led to a decrease in foreign trade. Nevertheless, the expansion of the normalization process among Azerbaijan's agricultural and food trading partners has led to an increase in the volume of goods and products.

Economic growth of about 1%, as well as 0.3% growth in retail trade and 2.4% growth in food products observed in our country from January to May 2021, also support the forecasts on the restoration of domestic and foreign trade. The driving force of 4.5 growth in the non-oil sector is related to 16.2% growth in the non-oil and gas production sector. The main part of the added value in the non-oil sector is an integral part of domestic consumption.

During the first 6 months of the current year, the export of Azerbaijan amounted to 8.8 billion US dollars with 1.2 billion US dollars in the non-oil sector. Compared to the same period in 2020, non-oil exports amounted to 248 million US dollars or increased by 27.1%. Although the oil sector has been the main driver of exports in the current period, the share of non-oil exports increased to 13.2% during the recovery period. During the observed period, there was an increase in non-oil and gas exports per capita. Thus, non-oil and gas exports in the first six months of 2017 amounted to 82 US dollars per year, in 2018 -94 US dollars, and 2019 - 97 US dollars.

In the period of normalization, in June, the foreign trade volume amounted to 2.4 billion US dollars, while exports amounted to 1.4 billion US dollars and imports - 997.1 million US dollars. The growth in the non-oil sector was 33.7% and reached 254.9 million US dollars. Another significant moment is that in June, the share of non-oil exports in total exports was close to 20%. There is also a coverage ratio of export and import, which is 1.4 points, or 140%. However, last year, due to the pandemic, this figure was 86.7%. The export-import coverage ratio indicates how much imports are met by exports. It should be noted, that this ratio is 47.5% in Georgia and 40% in Armenia.

Besides exports of goods and products, in the first quarter, exports of services in the non-oil sector amounted to about 496 million US dollars. The main reason for the decline in comparison with the corresponding period of last year is related to the active tourism sector in the first months of 2020. During the first quarter of 2020 when the pandemic was not widespread, the export of tourism services was 267.4 million US dollars. Also, while the deficit of the balance of services in the first quarter of 2020 was 192.2 million US dollars, in the first quarter of 2021 this figure was 138 million US dollars. Transport services, which are considered as the main driver of the export of services, in the non-oil sector amounted to 305.5 million.


Center for Analysis of Economic Reforms and Communication
www.ereforms.gov.az