The Turkic World Research Center, operating under the Center for Analysis of Economic Reforms and Communication, in cooperation with the Organization of Turkic States presents the latest edition of the Turkic Economic Outlook for the 4th quarter of 2024, available in 8 languages.
This quarterly report delivers an in-depth data on dynamics of the economic performance of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) members, including Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, Uzbekistan, and observer members Hungary, Turkmenistan, and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Utilizing proprietary data and recent developments, the report provides valuable insights into key economic indicators and evaluates the collective economic influence of OTS members on the global stage.
In 2024, the Turkic states accounted for 1.8% of the global economy with a GDP of 2.11 trillion USD, while their population of 178.8 million made up 2.8% of the global population. These figures demonstrate the significant economic and demographic position of the Turkic states.
During this period the Turkic states demonstrated solid economic growth, outperforming the global average of 3.2%. With an average GDP growth rate of 5.21%, these countries exhibited a faster pace of expansion compared to the global economy. Among them, Kyrgyzstan achieved the highest growth, expanding by 9%, reflecting rapid economic development.
Turkey, with the largest economy in the group, showed steady growth at 3.2%. Hungary, included in the dataset, experienced a more modest growth rate of 0.5%, indicating a period of slower economic expansion. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan saw healthy growth rates of 4.1%, 4.8% and 6.5%, respectively, driven by sector-specific improvements in industry and agriculture.
Trade turnover is a key indicator of both global integration and intra-OTS economic cooperation. In 2024, the total trade turnover for the Turkic states reached $1.17 trillion USD, accounting for approximately 3.5% of global trade, which stood at $33 trillion USD. The Organization of Turkic States (OTS) has set an ambitious target to double intra-OTS trade and reach $100 billion by 2025, further strengthening economic ties within the region.
Turkey led the group with the highest trade turnover, amounting to $605.88 billion USD, while Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan made significant contributions of $141.41 billion USD and $65.93 billion USD, respectively. These contributions were driven by steady export growth, with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan benefiting from their strong agro-industrial sectors. Kyrgyzstan experienced a trade imbalance, with imports exceeding exports, resulting in a trade deficit of $8.39 billion USD. In contrast, Azerbaijan achieved a positive trade balance, reporting a trade surplus of $5.27 billion USD. These figures reflect the differing trade dynamics within the region, with Azerbaijan benefiting from stronger export performance.
The industrial sector exhibited varied performance across the region. Turkey and Kazakhstan led with growth rates of 3.7% and 2.8%, respectively, supported by large-scale manufacturing and infrastructure projects. On the other hand, Azerbaijan and Hungary saw modest industrial growth, reflecting slower industrial expansion in these economies. In the agricultural sector, Kazakhstan posted the strongest growth at 13.7%, driven by favorable conditions for agro-exports. Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan also saw notable growth in agriculture, with rates of 6.3% and 3.1%, respectively, while Hungary faced a contraction of -10.4%, underscoring broader challenges in the European agricultural landscape.
İnvestments, especially in fixed capital, are crucial for long-term growth. In 2024, Kazakhstan and Turkey demonstrated growth rates of 7.5% and 6.1% in fixed capital investments, respectively, supported by significant investments in infrastructure, energy, and manufacturing sectors. Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan also showed healthy growth in fixed capital investments, increasing their foreign direct investments and achieving positive developments in their business environments.
The banking sector in the Turkic states also exhibited notable growth. During the reporting period, Kyrgyzstan’s banking sector saw a 32.8% increase in total assets, followed by Kazakhstan with 20%, Uzbekistan with 18%, and Turkey with 16%, indicating a strengthening of financial services that support economic development and investments. In contrast, Hungary’s banking sector showed more modest growth, suggesting potential challenges in the financial sector despite its developed economy.
Public budget performance is another key indicator of fiscal health. Turkey recorded the highest growth in public budget income, with a 66.5% increase and accompanied by a significant rise in public expenditure (63.6%). Other countries like Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan reported steady growth in both income and expenditure, signaling effective fiscal management. Kyrgyzstan's public budget income also showed significant growth, though the country faces a higher fiscal deficit.
Despite positive developments, the Turkic states face several key challenges. Trade imbalances remain a concern, particularly in Turkey, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Northern Cyprus where imports exceed exports, leading to trade deficits. These imbalances could place pressure on foreign reserves and currency stability. Additionally, fiscal sustainability is an ongoing challenge where rapid growth in public expenditure could strain government finances. The rapid expansion of the banking sector in emerging economies presents both opportunities and risks, requiring careful regulation to prevent potential financial instability.
In conclusion, the Turkic states outperformed the global average in terms of GDP growth and made significant strides in trade turnover and investments. However, addressing trade imbalances, ensuring fiscal sustainability, and diversifying their economies away from dependency on specific sectors like oil and gas will be crucial for maintaining robust and sustainable growth in the future.
AZE: https://shorturl.at/LKvDS
ENG: https://shorturl.at/HRVNS
RU: https://shorturl.at/YLqBA
TR: https://rb.gy/e58b3q
HU: https://rb.gy/57g1y2
UZ: https://rb.gy/8c2yyl
KZ: https://rb.gy/g0kgzz
KG: https://rb.gy/74pvu6